Home Financial consultant The White House prepares for the terrible news on the economy

The White House prepares for the terrible news on the economy

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But White House officials admit that even if the financial system continues to create jobs and people continue to spend, changing people’s minds is a scary process because the best inflation in four years has slashed wages.

“I guess none of us are trying to persuade anyone that their emotions about the economy are wrong,” said Jared Bernstein, a member of the Council of Financial Advisors and considered one of the most trusted aides. oldest of Biden, in an interview. “What we’re trying to do is clarify it in a more nuanced way than what most people get from the day-to-day news stream.”

Bernstein’s CEA and Treasury Division are blogging and studying that the current post-pandemic period — while unusual and alarming for many people — is just not close to a recession.

“This is not a financial system in a recession,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program on Sunday. On Monday, Biden’s senior aide Gene Sperling stepped into enemy territory on Fox News. The next day, Brian Deese, director of the National Financial Council, attended a White House briefing to make the case.

Aides even quietly praise former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the White House’s occasional nemesis, speaking on Monday. mentioned on CNN Anyone who says we’re in a recession right now is either ‘ignorant’ or ‘eager to reach the political level’. Summers still thinks a recession will likely unfold in the relatively near future.

On Friday afternoon, Biden got a briefing from Yellen, Deese, Sperling. CEA President Cecilia Rouse, Energy Minister Jennifer Granholm, Price Range Director Shalanda Younger, and State Division Global Electrical Coverage Coordinator Amos Hochstein.

The long, distant session focused on falling gasoline prices (a White House obsession), its impact on customers, and ongoing geopolitical issues (particularly the war in Ukraine), which could lead to a further rise in oil and gasoline prices.

White House press workers also often hold briefings with financial reporters and senior administration officials to talk about the strengths of the economy, regardless of the GDP numbers this week.

Republican leaders, however, are seeing an opportunity to capitalize on their already large advantage in the financial system as a by-election issue and push it to even bigger features in November than polls had predicted.

“It’s too dangerous that the White House doesn’t have a denial vaccine,” the consultant said. Kevin Brady The top Republican on the Home Strategies and Means Committee comes from Texas. “The question is simply not whether or not we are in a recession. The question is how arduous and how long. The reason people are struggling so badly right now could be because they deny inflation and labor shortages and other mismatches within the financial system.

Top White House aides are promising that Biden will return to his midterm campaign road soon after fully recovering from Covid, to respond to that narrative with a more specific message regarding the economy. It looks like it is both strong (with strong job growth) and improving (lower gas prices).

And Biden plans to align with bipartisan laws to spice up home-based semiconductor manufacturing, and the Build Higher Again program as ways for the administration to behave to minimize the burden of inflation in order to save a lot of prescription drug costs.

“You can see a line of sight to real progress on some of these key points and count on him to focus on that, elevate those things to get people to understand that this progress is important,” said a senior assistant at the White House. who was not authorized to speak on the document.

And Biden will be more vocal in criticizing GOP plans to make permanent tax cuts under President Donald Trump and weaken regulation.

Many economists agree that this post-pandemic second does not meet most standards for a recession, a politically charged term that has no exact definition and is normally only proclaimed – usually after the decline has ended. – by the National Bureau of Financial Analysis. analysis group.

Unemployment charges are near document ranges, regardless of US GDP down two-quarters. Employment alternatives are very high and buyer spending can be very solid. And the unfavorable numbers for the first quarter were significantly skewed by technical components on stocks and trade.

“If we print an unfavorable GDP growth tax this week, the administration should win controversy among economists over whether we are already in a recession, given that nearly all are likely to look not only at the contraction of two quarters, but in addition to its severity and its magnitude, mentioned Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens School of Cambridge and chief financial adviser to the monetary conglomerate Allianz. given the framework’s introduction to knowledge dissemination.”

To be sure, the powerful forces facing Democrats — inflation over 9%, a voter happy that we’re already in a recession, and Biden’s lowest approval scores within the financial system — could prove insurmountable.

The White House will also be grappling with a Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates by at least three-quarters on Wednesday. The Fed’s March campaign to slow demand and rein in inflation is putting a damper on customers’ plans to buy huge bills like homes and vehicles, according to the latest Buyer Sentiment figures from the Convention Board .

And pollsters say the White House and Democratic candidates are unlikely to create a huge difference in public opinion, even when Thursday’s GDP figure comes as a pleasant shock.

“Inflation is a much bigger issue than the rest on everyone’s mind, including Covid, Ukraine, arms, three times bigger,” said unit analyst Tim Malloy. Quinnipiac College survey. “As time is running out towards the mid-terms, there is very little time left for them to fix this. There may actually be little to no upside potential for them here.

On the average of major national surveys on the subject conducted by RealClearPolitics, Biden approves of the economy at 32%, compared to 64% disapproving.

Despite strong winds, senior White House officials say they have no choice but to try to make claims that the economy is doing better than the polls suggest.

“Each person is the best professional in the world in the way they do it,” said a second administration official. “The reason it’s important to get out and get the financial system right is that you don’t need people to be too pessimistic about future components and only believe in those with the most important megaphones in the media.”